A Calm November in Real Estate

Overview of important developments in the Toronto Metro housing market and macro reported in November 2024

Highlights

• Toronto Metro real estate largely aligned with seasonal trends in November.

• Condos within the city outperformed the broader condo sector.

• Toronto Metro’s rental market saw modest improvement.

• National rent prices declined annually for the first time in three years.

• New construction sales in Toronto Metro hit new record lows.

• Population growth slowdown continues.

• The national real estate is nearing a seller's market state.

• The number of insolvencies in Ontario reached its highest level since at least 2012.

• Toronto Metro's housing affordability and investment attractiveness remain low.

Real Estate Market

After gaining momentum in October, the market paused in November, with key metrics showing little change relative to 10-year averages.

While active inventory appeared to increase, seasonally adjusted figures indicate it remained stable compared to the previous month. Market balance indicators also held steady compared to the 10-year average.

Overall, the market performed largely in line with seasonality in November with no major shifts. Price changes were mixed, further reflecting the market's equilibrium.

One notable trend is the relative strength of Toronto (416) condos, which are beginning to outperform the broader condo sector despite remaining weaker than the overall market.

Although it’s too early to call this a new trend, it warrants attention, particularly with increasing downtown office occupancy and narrowing Toronto condo price premiums compared to the overall GTA.

The Toronto Metro rental market remains weak but showed a slight improvement in November.

Rent prices edged down, consistent with seasonal trends. Risks for the rental market remain skewed to the downside, but rent prices for newer units in Toronto Metro are starting to become affordable so stabilization is also a possibility.

While rents in Toronto Metro have been declining for quite some time now, on a national level, annual rent price change went negative in October for the first time in the last 3 years.

That trend will likely continue, leading to an improvement in rental affordability in Canada. However, longer-term risks persist, especially with pre-construction sales in